216
FXUS64 KCRP 031941
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
241 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS HAS RESULTED
IN SURFACE WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PLEASANT EVENING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, AND INTO 60S
ELSEWHERE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH FORMING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE,
RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW (OVER THE
RIO GRANDE) TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO SURPASS THE
UPPER 80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSER TO
THE RIO GRANDE, WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AT PLAY
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE (30-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES IN ALOFT. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY MONDAY (20-50% CHANCE); MOVING TO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS/VICTORIA CROSSROADS (30-70% CHANCE) TUESDAY. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO LOW TO MODERATE (20-60%) DRIFT SOUTH ALONG ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OVER THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HOPEFULLY, WE CAN GET SOME RAIN IN OUR WATERSHED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH LAST NIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING THIS MORNING'S SKY COVERAGE TO
THIN OUT. MOST SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, REDUCED CEILINGS
ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS, BUT THAT WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN NNE'LY AT 10-15 KTS WITH WINDS TONIGHT
SUBSIDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS SWITCH TO MORE E'LY WINDS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MODERATE (BF 4) NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH 3-4 FT SEAS AND CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (OFFSHORE WATERS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH SEAS MODERATING TO NEAR 3 FT SUNDAY. MODERATE TO
FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 3-4 FEET TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF
3-4) WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 82 71 84 / 10 10 10 30
VICTORIA 56 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 40
LAREDO 67 83 71 90 / 10 10 30 40
ALICE 62 85 69 86 / 10 10 10 30
ROCKPORT 68 83 73 83 / 10 10 10 40
COTULLA 62 85 69 87 / 10 10 10 50
KINGSVILLE 65 83 70 85 / 10 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 72 80 73 82 / 10 10 10 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...AE/82
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