818
FXUS64 KCRP 041621
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1121 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A RELATIVELY QUIET SUNDAY IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF US KEEPING WINDS MAINLY EAST. WE'LL
SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS, THOUGH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT TODAY (MAINLY SOUTH), CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION ARE VERY LOW. THAT CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY THEN BEGINNING
TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WE'LL DEVELOP A MEDIUM 40-60%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH, BUT WITH
MOISTURE STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY LOW (UNDER HALF AN INCH).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK TODAY INTO MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS (MID 80S), THOUGH THE RIO
GRADE PLAINS WILL WARM MONDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
TOPPING 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES, AND EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 70S IN THE COASTAL BEND
AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH MID AND UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- LOW TO MODERATE (30-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SURGE OF MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.5-1.9 INCHES) FROM BOTH THE
GULF AND PACIFIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PROLONGED STRETCH OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTING
EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES, HELPING TO SUSTAIN DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE (30-60%).
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A STALLED BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER
THE AREA. WHILE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE. BY
MORNING, A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR/MVFR
AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY
WITH 3-4 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL INCREASE FROM 3-4 FEET TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4)
WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FEET BY THE WEEKEND. LOW TO
MODERATE (30- 60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 72 83 76 / 10 10 30 30
VICTORIA 84 62 82 71 / 0 0 60 40
LAREDO 83 72 92 76 / 0 40 30 30
ALICE 83 69 85 74 / 0 10 30 30
ROCKPORT 82 73 82 76 / 10 10 50 40
COTULLA 82 70 87 74 / 0 30 40 40
KINGSVILLE 82 70 84 75 / 10 10 30 30
NAVY CORPUS 80 74 82 76 / 10 20 30 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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