160
FXUS64 KCRP 050354
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.
- STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY.
CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS S TX VIA SATELLITE
IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND WILL EJECT A WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TONIGHT, BRINGING A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF WEBB AND LASALLE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT
PREVIOUSLY MOVED THROUGH S TX, WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON MONDAY, THUS
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20-30% ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, IT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS S
TX. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 40-60% ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL AND
MEANDER ACROSS S TX THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING A 20-40%
CHANCE OF PRECIP.
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA AND STALLING,
FORECASTING HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW,
MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S. LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF S TX.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
- WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS S TX AND
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION,
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.7-2.0 INCHES WHILE A MORE
POTENT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS S TX THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A 50-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WITH POPS
DECREASING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DUE TO
A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION. IF THESE FEATURES COME TOGETHER AS
FORECASTED, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THERE IS A LOW/MARGINAL CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF MAINLY URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH 50-70% ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND TO
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND A 30-45% CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF S TX EVENING HOURS. LRD
AND COT TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER
06Z THEN BECOME PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. ALI, CRP AND VCT
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS GENERALLY AFTER
09Z. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD LRD AFTER 06Z.
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS S TX, THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF S
TX. ON MONDAY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND THE LONGER DURATION ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM COT TO VCT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
BECAUSE THE BEST CHANCE OF WHERE THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR WILL DEPEND
ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 3-4
FEET TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS AND/OR SEAS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY TO A GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 3-4
FEET BY THE WEEKEND. LOW TO MODERATE (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 82 75 89 / 10 30 30 30
VICTORIA 64 80 72 86 / 0 60 40 70
LAREDO 73 92 74 100 / 40 30 30 10
ALICE 71 84 74 96 / 10 30 30 20
ROCKPORT 73 81 75 87 / 10 50 40 40
COTULLA 70 88 73 96 / 30 40 40 30
KINGSVILLE 72 83 74 94 / 10 30 30 20
NAVY CORPUS 75 80 76 85 / 20 30 40 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81
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