250
FXUS64 KCRP 050728
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
228 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEVERE STORM OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHEST RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
A BLOCKING H5 PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS WITH TWO DISTINCT
CLOSED LOWS NOTED ON EARLY AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ONE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A SECOND POSITIONED NEAR THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER. MID-LVL
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OUR AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
LOWS, AND THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE SW US
LOW VERY SLOWLY PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, A HYBRID
SYNOPTIC/THERMAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WEST TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LVL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF A
(CURRENTLY) STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT CROSS THROUGH OUR
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY, WARMING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE ARE EARLY AS THIS
MORNING, AND THIS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE RESIDUAL (SUBSIDENT) INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE,
AND MEAGER LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES (DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT). THAT BEING SAID, THE VERY BACKED LOW-LVL WIND
PROFILES COMBINED WITH SEASONABLY STRONG SWRLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY ALTHOUGH THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A
ROGUE SUPERCELL TO FORM OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN ~100KT UL JET NOSES IN. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE
GREATEST UL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THOUGH AS A FAIRLY ROBUST
CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS/NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE
THEY COULD BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS (SPC HAS OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK ON TUESDAY). THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS ALSO FAIRLY CHALLENGING FOR TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
AXIS LIKELY MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE NE-SW ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO NEAR 100 OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. REACHING THE MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
- WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.
AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST, SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL
RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT, HELPING TO
SPARK WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE (PWATS
AROUND 1.7-2.0 INCHES) COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG) COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. SPC CURRENTLY
HAS THE ENTIRETY OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ON TOP OF THAT, THERE'S A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WPC HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW WILL STILL BE NEARBY. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SWINGING THROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE REGION,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR LIKELY (30-70%
CHANCE). THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES IN PLAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE UPPER LOW
GETS NUDGED EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THIS WILL DRY
THINGS OUT AND BRING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF S TX EVENING HOURS. LRD
AND COT TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER
06Z THEN BECOME PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. ALI, CRP AND VCT
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS GENERALLY AFTER
09Z. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD LRD AFTER 06Z.
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS S TX, THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF S
TX. ON MONDAY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND THE LONGER DURATION ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM COT TO VCT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
BECAUSE THE BEST CHANCE OF WHERE THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR WILL DEPEND
ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SEAS ALSO INCREASING TO 5
TO 6 FT. WINDS AND/OR SEAS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY TO A GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FEET BY
THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 83 76 89 73 / 30 20 30 40
VICTORIA 81 72 86 71 / 50 40 60 50
LAREDO 92 76 100 73 / 20 20 10 50
ALICE 86 74 94 72 / 40 20 20 40
ROCKPORT 83 76 86 73 / 30 30 30 50
COTULLA 88 75 96 72 / 40 30 20 40
KINGSVILLE 85 76 94 73 / 30 20 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 82 77 85 74 / 30 30 30 50
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NC/91
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...TE/81
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