994
FXUS64 KCRP 051755
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEVERE STORM OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST
RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
A BLOCKING H5 PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS WITH TWO DISTINCT
CLOSED LOWS NOTED ON EARLY AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ONE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A SECOND POSITIONED NEAR THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER. MID-LVL
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OUR AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
LOWS, AND THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE SW US
LOW VERY SLOWLY PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, A HYBRID
SYNOPTIC/THERMAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WEST TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LVL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF A
(CURRENTLY) STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT CROSS THROUGH OUR
AREA FULLY UNTIL TUESDAY, WARMING ALOFT WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY AS
THIS MORNING, AND THIS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE RESIDUAL (SUBSIDENT) INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LVL RIDGE, AND MEAGER LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES (DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT). THAT BEING SAID, THE VERY
BACKED LOW-LVL WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH SEASONABLY STRONG SWRLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
CONSEQUENTLY ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED THERE
IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A ROGUE SUPERCELL TO FORM OVER NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN US LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN ~100KT UL JET NOSES IN. LATEST GUIDANCE
FAVORS THE GREATEST UL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL
LIKELY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THOUGH AS A
FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS/NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO INITIATE THEY COULD BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS (SPC HAS OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK ON TUESDAY). THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY CHALLENGING FOR TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS LIKELY MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE NE-SW ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
TO NEAR 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. REACHING THE MID 80S OVER
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
- WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.
AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST, SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL
RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT, HELPING TO
SPARK WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE (PWATS
AROUND 1.7-2.0 INCHES) COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG) COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. SPC CURRENTLY
HAS THE ENTIRETY OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ON TOP OF THAT, THERE'S A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WPC HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW WILL STILL BE NEARBY. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SWINGING THROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE REGION,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR LIKELY (30-70%
CHANCE). THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES IN PLAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE UPPER LOW
GETS NUDGED EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THIS WILL DRY
THINGS OUT AND BRING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS, WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING NOW AT MOST
SITES. A FEW TERMINALS STILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS, MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER FROM COT-VCT. EXPECT COT TO BECOME VFR IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. VCT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE IS DEEPER THERE. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY VFR DUE TO MIXING. A LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY MOIST WITH NO
CAP THUS GIVEN THE MODEST MOIST LOW LEVEL JET, WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE S/W PASSES TO THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS
BEGIN TO LIFT. VFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OUT WEST BEFORE 18Z TUE.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SEAS ALSO INCREASING TO 5
TO 6 FT. WINDS AND/OR SEAS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY TO A GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FEET BY
THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 89 73 84 / 20 30 40 50
VICTORIA 72 86 71 85 / 40 60 50 70
LAREDO 76 100 73 91 / 20 10 50 30
ALICE 74 94 72 88 / 20 20 40 50
ROCKPORT 76 86 73 84 / 30 30 50 70
COTULLA 75 96 72 89 / 30 20 40 40
KINGSVILLE 76 94 73 86 / 20 20 40 50
NAVY CORPUS 77 85 74 81 / 30 30 50 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY
FOR GMZ270-275.
SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...JM/75
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