030
FXUS64 KCRP 051941
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
241 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST RAIN
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SPINNING OVER THE DESERT SW TONIGHT
WITH A LEADING S/W PROGGED TO CROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE
STRONG CAP IN PLACE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS LIKE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST, A TRAILING PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO ERODE
OUR CAP AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ABOVE 3000
J/KG AND SHEAR WITH BULK SHEAR ~45 KNOTS, THUS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PRESENT. SPC SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY. AN ACCOMPANING S/W AND 100 KNOT JET ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FACTORS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
100 DEGREES OUT WEST WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WHERE SUBSIDENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER EAST
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE (30-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW NEARBY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
OOZING INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY FRIDAY WITH A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND (DRY, MOSTLY
SUNNY, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S) EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS, WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING NOW AT MOST
SITES. A FEW TERMINALS STILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS, MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER FROM COT-VCT. EXPECT COT TO BECOME VFR IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. VCT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE IS DEEPER THERE. ELSEWHERE CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY VFR DUE TO MIXING. A LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY MOIST WITH NO
CAP THUS GIVEN THE MODEST MOIST LOW LEVEL JET, WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE S/W PASSES TO THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING, WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS
BEGIN TO LIFT. VFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OUT WEST BEFORE 18Z TUE.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5-6 FEET RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEAST
TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, A LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) BREEZE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MODERATE (20-65%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 90 74 85 / 10 30 30 50
VICTORIA 71 87 71 85 / 20 60 40 60
LAREDO 76 99 74 93 / 20 10 50 30
ALICE 74 96 72 89 / 10 20 40 50
ROCKPORT 76 87 74 85 / 20 40 40 60
COTULLA 75 96 72 90 / 30 20 30 40
KINGSVILLE 76 94 73 87 / 10 20 30 40
NAVY CORPUS 77 85 74 82 / 10 30 40 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY
FOR GMZ270-275.
SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...JM/75
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