968
FXUS64 KCRP 052337
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST RAIN
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SPINNING OVER THE DESERT SW TONIGHT
WITH A LEADING S/W PROGGED TO CROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND THE
STRONG CAP IN PLACE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS LIKE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST, A TRAILING PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO ERODE
OUR CAP AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPES ABOVE 3000
J/KG AND SHEAR WITH BULK SHEAR ~45 KNOTS, THUS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PRESENT. SPC SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY. AN ACCOMPANYING S/W AND 100 KNOT JET ALOFT
WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FACTORS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
APPROACH 100 DEGREES OUT WEST WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY WHERE SUBSIDENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER
EAST CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE (30-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW NEARBY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
OOZING INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY FRIDAY WITH A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND (DRY, MOSTLY
SUNNY, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S) EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE VCT TAF SITE THIS EVENING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CRP SITE. VCT HAS CURRENTLY DROPPED TO IFR
BUT IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN
BECOME PREVAILING MVFR OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE S TX TAF SITES
ARE CURRENTLY AT VFR LEVELS, BUT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40
KNOTS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE
WINDS ELEVATED, POSSIBLE STRENGTHEN WITH GUST TO AROUND 27 KNOTS
ACROSS LRD. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 09-12Z WINDS WILL
RELAX ACROSS LRD AND COT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF S
TX. AT THIS TIME, THE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ALI, CRP
NOR VCT. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST, THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS
S TX, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO WANE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY STRONG, ISOLATED SEVERE, STORMS, DUE
TO A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5-6 FEET RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEAST
TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, A LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) BREEZE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MODERATE (20-65%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 90 74 85 / 10 30 30 50
VICTORIA 71 87 71 85 / 20 60 40 60
LAREDO 76 99 74 93 / 20 10 50 30
ALICE 74 96 72 89 / 10 20 40 50
ROCKPORT 76 87 74 85 / 20 40 40 60
COTULLA 75 96 72 90 / 30 20 30 40
KINGSVILLE 76 94 73 87 / 10 20 30 40
NAVY CORPUS 77 85 74 82 / 10 30 40 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ270-275.
SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81
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