533
FXUS64 KCRP 060725
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
MORNING. MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TODAY WHILE AN UL JET STREAK (~100KTS AT
300MB) WILL NOSE INTO S/CENTRAL TX FROM THE SW. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO TEXAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DRYLINE PROGRESSING THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
POTENTIALLY PUSHING ALL THE WAY TO AROUND US 281, BEFORE STALLING IN
THE MID-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE TODAY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S UNDERLIE STEEP (~8 C/KM) 700-500MB LAPSE RATES RESULTING
IN A CORRIDOR OF 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. ADDITIONALLY DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 50-60KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LVL FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING (WHICH WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH) AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY SERVE AS OUR MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A CHANCE THE CAP CAN BE ERODED BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, THE
CAMS SHOW VIRTUALLY NO DAYTIME CONVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY OUTSIDE
OF NORTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY BE CLIPPED BY THE LARGER SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM, POPS ARE LARGELY UNMENTIONABLE THROUGH SUNSET. HOT
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WHEREVER THE SURFACE FLOW CAN ACQUIRE
ANY KIND OF WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 90S BEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT BACK
TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH ANOTHER
NEARLY STATIONARY N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY. LOW-LVL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY (UPSLOPE) AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SETUP MAY RESULT IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SAME
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WILL MORE OR LESS
STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT, SO A CONDITIONAL (ON CONVECTION
ACTUALLY OCCURRING) SEVERE RISK CERTAINLY EXISTS WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREAT, WITH AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
IF THE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED. THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AM AS THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL NOW . THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE PERIOD TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL AS RICH
MOISTURE (PWATS ~ 1.8 INCHES) REMAINS POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS LARGELY BOUNDARY PARALLEL (I.E.
WESTERLY).
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW LINGERS TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SLIPS INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ISN'T EXPECTED TO PACK MUCH OF A PUNCH, IT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTH TEXAS INTO THURSDAY, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW TO
MODERATE RANGE (30-60%). BY FRIDAY, THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT
FARTHER EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A STRETCH OF DRIER, BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. ONSHORE
FLOW RESUMES AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, BRINGING BACK
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE AND WARMER, NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE VCT TAF SITE THIS
EVENING. VCT HAS BEEN VARYING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CRP'S CIGS ARE ALSO MVFR.
COT, LRD AND ALI SITES ARE CURRENTLY AT VFR LEVELS, BUT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 06-08Z. A LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS HAS DEVELOPED AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
35-40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS ELEVATED. BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 09-12Z WINDS WILL RELAX ACROSS LRD
AND COT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF S TX. AT THIS TIME, THE
BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ALI, CRP NOR VCT. THERE IS A
10-20% CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST, THEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS S TX, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO WANE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MAY BECOME
VERY STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FRESH ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO MODERATE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN BECOMING GENTLE ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
5-7 FT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE COMING DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) ONSHORE BREEZE DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODERATE (30-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 73 86 72 / 20 50 50 20
VICTORIA 87 71 86 68 / 60 60 60 20
LAREDO 100 73 94 72 / 0 40 30 20
ALICE 96 72 90 71 / 10 50 40 10
ROCKPORT 87 74 86 73 / 30 60 70 20
COTULLA 96 70 92 71 / 10 30 30 20
KINGSVILLE 96 73 89 71 / 20 50 40 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 75 83 74 / 20 60 60 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...NC/91
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...TE/81
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