979
FXUS64 KCRP 242343
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS (LEVEL 2/4 OUT
OF 4)
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES NEAR
1.5"). ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, ENOUGH WILL LINGER
TO YIELD A MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. THE MODERATE RISK CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND WITH AN AREA OF EXTREME RISK ACROSS LA SALLE AND
MCMULLEN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
IS EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTING AN AREA OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO SOUTH TEXAS PROMOTING A VERY LOW CHANCE
(LESS THAN 15%) OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT, THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
PLEASE USE CAUTION IF OUTDOORS AND REMEMBER TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. MORE HEAT SAFETY INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL NEXT WEEK.
WE'LL HAVE RIDGING TO OUR EAST TO START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH CONNECTED TO A
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS
TEXAS WITH PVA MAINLY OVER NORTH/CENTRAL TX. COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA MID-WEEK,
WILL RESULT IN LOW TO AT TIMES MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES (20-40%)
PEAKING AROUND 50% TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN WEBB
COUNTY.
THE HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE MAJOR TO EXTREME ON
MEMORIAL DAY WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES GENERALLY UP TO 110-115.
TUESDAY HAS A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
MAINLY 105-110 AND A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
DAILY AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE 90-105
DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 90 TO AROUND 100
DEGREES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL START OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY NIGHT THEN LOW TO MID
70S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PREPARE TO ADJUST PLANS TO ACCOMMODATE
FREQUENT BREAKS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. ALWAYS, PRACTICE
HEAT SAFETY: DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LOOSE-
FITTING AND LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING, AND APPLY SUNSCREEN. NEVER
LEAVE ANYONE IN A VEHICLE UNATTENDED AND DON'T FORGET TO CHECK THE
BACKSEAT!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR TONIGHT AS MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE INLAND EAST TO WEST, OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING COT/LRD BETWEEN
10-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEARING 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5)ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING TO PREDOMINATELY FRESH (BF 5) SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THEN
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW (BF 3-4) TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (GENERALLY <30%) BUT UP TO AROUND 35% WEDNESDAY AND
NEXT SATURDAY ACROSS THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 92 80 92 / 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 77 94 77 92 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 78 102 80 103 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 80 90 80 90 / 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 78 104 80 102 / 0 0 10 20
KINGSVILLE 78 95 78 95 / 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 88 80 87 / 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ241>244.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...EMF/94
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