726
FXUS64 KCRP 251733
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS (LEVEL 2-4 OUT
OF 4) TODAY AND MONDAY
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A RETURN TODAY
WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.6" TO 1.9" BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY TO LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
TODAY. WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES HEAT INDICES UP TO 112 ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS, BASED ON SATURDAY'S SUB-110 HEAT
INDEX VALUES, WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER THEY THINK A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NECESSARY.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW THE HEAT WILL PLAY OUT ON MONDAY.
INCREASED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES SLIGHTLY OVER 2.0") COULD LEAD TO
EVEN HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A MORE
WIDESPREAD 110-114 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS; BUT,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON, KEEPING TEMPERATURES, AND THUS THE HEAT INDEX VALUES,
SLIGHTLY LOWER. THERE IS ALSO A LOW (<20% CHANCE) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD ALSO KEEP US SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST. EVEN WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING, MOTHER NATURE LIKES TO KEEP US
ON OUR TOES.
WITH MEMORIAL DAY ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF OUTDOORS AND REMEMBER TO REMAIN
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. MORE HEAT SAFETY INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL WEEK.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
REQUIRED TODAY. OVERALL, EXPECT DAILY LOW TO AT TIMES MEDIUM RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-50%) ALL WEEK OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SEVERAL PASSING DISTURBANCES. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS
THAN A HALF AN INCH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEEK. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.5" THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AFTER ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 105, TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST ALSO ON TUESDAY WITH
VALUES AROUND 110-114 OUT WEST. ASIDE FROM THAT, EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100-110. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
CIGS LATE THIS MORNING ARE HOVERING AROUND 3KFT BUT SHOULD LIFT TO
ABOVE THAT LEVEL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD MORNING, BUT LONGER FOR EASTERN
SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING TO PREDOMINATELY FRESH (BF 5)
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5)
FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS.
THEN EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW (BF 3-4) TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30%), BUT UP TO AROUND 45%
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 80 92 80 / 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 94 78 92 76 / 0 10 10 30
LAREDO 103 80 103 78 / 0 10 10 10
ALICE 98 77 98 78 / 0 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 10 20
COTULLA 104 80 102 78 / 0 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 95 78 95 78 / 0 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 88 81 88 80 / 0 0 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...PH/83
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