408
FXUS64 KCRP 260501
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1201 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS (LEVEL 2-4 OUT OF
4) TODAY AND MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK APART
FROM INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWAT'S CLIMB ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE.
WHILE SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS) TODAY AND MONDAY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE, CHANCES OVER SOUTH TEXAS REMAIN LOW (15-25%). RESULTING
IN LIMITED SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TONIGHT TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ON MEMORIAL DAY. THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS IS CURRENTLY UNDER A GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY
TODAY AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA MONDAY. ACCOMPANIED BY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SKIRTING THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
BORDER OF OUR CWA TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE HAVE LIMITED ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO OUR REGION. STORMS
LOOK TO ORIGINATE OFF OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY MAKING IT OVER THE RIVER ARE LOW AS
WE HAVE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND IF STORMS DO MAKE IT, THEY ARE
LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED.
THE HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE MODERATE TO EXTREME
TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES GENERALLY UP TO 109
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THERE'S A LOW,
10% CHANCE OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 110 DEGREES IN SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS TODAY AND A 10-30% CHANCE OF 110 DEGREES ON MEMORIAL
DAY.
SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 90-105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
**IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EARLY THIS WEEK, CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PREPARE TO ADJUST PLANS TO ACCOMMODATE
FREQUENT BREAKS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. ALWAYS, PRACTICE
HEAT SAFETY: DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LOOSE-FITTING
AND LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING, AND APPLY SUNSCREEN. NEVER LEAVE ANYONE
IN A VEHICLE UNATTENDED AND DON'T FORGET TO CHECK THE BACKSEAT!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL WEEK.
WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE CONTINUED RIDGING,
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LOW TO AT TIMES MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY, BUT CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN SEVERELY LACKING WITH FRONTS
FOR THIS WEEK. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, FRONTS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY, AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING
IN IS NOT HIGH. THAT SAID, IF THERE IS A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AN ERODING CAP AND SUFFICIENT CAPE COULD ALLOW
FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, PRETTY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 100-105 WEST
AND 90S EAST. AFTER THAT, WE DROP IT BACK A NOTCH WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH DPTS REMAINING ELEVATED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED SO LEFT OUT ANY MENTION FOR FOG. THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE ON THESE MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING THAN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED AROUND
20 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEARING 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
TO PREDOMINATELY FRESH (BF 5) TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH (BF 4-5) ON MEMORIAL DAY ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN EXPECT GENTLE
TO MODERATE FLOW (BF 3-4) TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 30%), BUT UP TO AROUND 45% WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 93 79 91 / 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 78 93 76 92 / 0 10 20 30
LAREDO 80 103 79 101 / 10 10 10 20
ALICE 78 98 77 97 / 0 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 81 92 80 90 / 0 0 10 20
COTULLA 80 103 78 101 / 0 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 78 95 78 94 / 0 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 91 81 90 / 0 0 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...EMF/94
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