195
FXUS64 KCRP 261118
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TODAY THE 20% POPS ARE
STRETCHED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF S TX. THE LOW CHANCE
OF CONVECTION IS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REASON THE POPS
ARE LOW IS DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS
OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONGER AND SWING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION, LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS MORE OF S TX. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO MOVE FARTHER EASTWARD INTO S TX. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE
UNSTABLE LONG WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP. THUS, ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP, COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER
HAS S TX IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE HEAT, THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED
IMPACTS TODAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO
112 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT INDICES WILL ACTUALLY
REACH 110 EXCEPT BRIEFLY FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD
COOLER AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IT TOO LOW TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
TODAY. THUS, WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL
WEEK.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST: RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHETHER A BOUNDARY CAN ACTUALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT
DON'T LET THAT FOOL YOU--HIGHS WILL NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY DAILY THIS WEEK. IF YOU ARE WORKING OUTSIDE, REMEMBER TO
TAKE BREAKS, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR YOUR SUNSCREEN, AND LOOK
BEFORE YOU LOCK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR THIS MORNING ACROSS ALI, CRP AND VCT, WILL
BECOME PREDOMINANTLY VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
40KT ACROSS THESE SAME TAF SITES AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS HAS LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING. THE LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH MID MORNING LEADING WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A FRESH (BF 5) ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST AND MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. EXPECT GENTLE TO
MODERATE FLOW (BF 3-4) TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (GENERALLY
LESS THAN 30%), BUT UP TO AROUND 45% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 80 92 77 / 10 10 10 30
VICTORIA 92 75 92 74 / 20 30 30 30
LAREDO 103 79 102 76 / 10 10 20 50
ALICE 97 77 98 75 / 10 10 10 40
ROCKPORT 85 80 90 78 / 20 20 20 30
COTULLA 102 77 102 75 / 10 20 20 60
KINGSVILLE 95 78 95 77 / 10 10 10 40
NAVY CORPUS 86 80 88 78 / 10 10 10 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81
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