472
FXUS64 KCRP 270020
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
720 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS
THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS WELL AS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (1-2 OUT OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS HIGHLIGHTS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FOR
BOTH POSSIBILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
INCLUDING THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT
THERE'S A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (1-2 OUT OF
4) ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND ALSO A MARGINAL
TO SLIGHT RISK (1-2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL (1-2+ INCHES) AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
THERE'S ALSO AN INCREASED (ALBEIT LOW) RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASED
STORM AND SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL,
CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOW END (GENERALLY <30%) FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
CLOSE TO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE CHANCES TO A LOW
TO MODERATE 30-50% ACROSS THE CWA. PEAK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 06Z- 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT STORMS COULD POP-UP
OR MOVE OVER THE REGION ANYTIME DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF APPROACHING BOUNDARIES AND ABOVE NORMAL PWAT'S.
THE HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY IS MODERATE TO
MAJOR WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES GENERALLY UP TO AROUND 110,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY. THERE'S LESS RISK TOMORROW WITH GENERALLY A
MODERATE HEAT RISK WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND THE SAME. HOWEVER
WHETHER OR NOT WE HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 90-105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
**IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EARLY THIS WEEK, CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PREPARE TO ADJUST PLANS TO ACCOMMODATE
FREQUENT BREAKS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. ALWAYS, PRACTICE
HEAT SAFETY: DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LOOSE-FITTING
AND LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING, AND APPLY SUNSCREEN. NEVER LEAVE ANYONE
IN A VEHICLE UNATTENDED AND DON'T FORGET TO CHECK THE BACKSEAT!
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL
WEEK.
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE PART
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO BE MOVING THROUGH AT DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WE'LL HAVE A PRETTY ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 2000-
3000 J/KG CAPE DESPITE BEING OVERNIGHT. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY. HRRR SUGGESTS A SQUALL LINE REACHING THE
COAST BY AROUND 12Z, WHICH CONCEPTUALLY SEEMS MOST REALISTIC WITH
SOME OTHER MESO MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING. WEDNESDAY DAY
TIME IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TO BE DRY BEHIND THIS INITIAL MCS, THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO GIVE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINS UNSETTLED AS WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY LOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES (AROUND 90 EAST TO
MID 90S WEST) FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOW TEMPS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL (70S).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A COMPLICATED SCENARIO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CONTRIBUTED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
TIMES MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN OTHERS. CURRENTLY SEEING MVFR CEILINGS
IMPACT NEAR THE COAST (CRP) AND OCCASIONALLY INLAND OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER TONIGHT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY MOVE SOUTHWARD. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WITH RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION PERSISTING AS IT
APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VCT IS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DIRECT
TERMINAL IMPACTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER 12 KNOTS AND WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WITH THE STORMS AND RELATIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
FRESH (BF 5) ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS LATER
THIS EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW (BF 3-4) TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE
FLOW (BF 3-4) THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BECOMING MAINLY WEAK FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 30%), BUT UP TO AROUND 45% WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 93 76 89 / 10 10 30 50
VICTORIA 73 94 73 88 / 30 30 30 50
LAREDO 78 102 76 96 / 10 10 50 40
ALICE 77 98 75 93 / 10 10 40 40
ROCKPORT 78 91 77 88 / 10 10 30 50
COTULLA 77 102 75 95 / 20 20 60 40
KINGSVILLE 78 95 76 90 / 10 10 30 40
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 78 88 / 10 10 30 50
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...EMF/94
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