589
FXUS64 KCRP 270819
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
319 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MARGINAL WEDNESDAY
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, MARGINAL
WEDNESDAY
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS
A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH S TX EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS
UNTIL 5 AM, BUT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY ONCE THESE STORMS EXIT THE
AREA.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO LOW (10-20%) BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO A MEDIUM (30-50%)
CHANCE BY EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO WITH PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED. BASED ON THE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MAJORITY OF S TX IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, EXCEPT THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK.
WITH THE DEEPENING MOISTURE, RAINFALL RATES MAY BE HIGH. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, MAINLY ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS AND URBAN AREAS.
THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE THREAT WILL BE LOWER
WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS S TX THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, THUS DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EAST TO MID
90S WEST. THEN TEMPS WARM BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100 WEST. THE OVERALL HEAT
RISK WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF CARRIZO
SPRINGS EASTWARD TO CUERO, IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COT AND VCT TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS WILL
TRACK, BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS HAS
BEEN ADDED TO LRD, ALI AND CRP FOR AFTER 07Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY 10-12Z WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COT AND LRD EARLY EVENING,
THEN VCT, ALI AND CRP LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY 14-16Z TUESDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE (BF 6) WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
VERY STRONG GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS, THEN WIND GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5-6 FEET. THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-60%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MODERATE
FLOW (BF 3-4) THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE
(20-35%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW (BF 3-4)
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BECOMING MAINLY WEAK FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (GENERALLY
LESS THAN 30%), BUT UP TO AROUND 45% WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 76 88 76 / 20 40 50 10
VICTORIA 92 74 87 74 / 30 30 70 10
LAREDO 100 76 95 76 / 10 50 40 20
ALICE 96 74 92 75 / 10 40 50 10
ROCKPORT 90 77 87 78 / 20 30 50 10
COTULLA 100 76 94 76 / 20 50 50 20
KINGSVILLE 94 75 90 76 / 10 40 50 10
NAVY CORPUS 88 77 86 79 / 20 40 50 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...TE/81
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