499
FXUS64 KCRP 280438
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1138 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
A MARGINAL RISK TO SLIGHT RISK (1-2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL AS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK (1-2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR CWA.
TOMORROW, THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (1 OUT OF
5) AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (1 OUT OF 4) ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE MAIN
THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL (1 INCH) IN ADDITION
TO THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A LOW (2%) PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. STORM TOTAL QPF
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING IS GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH WITH 2-2.50
INCHES IN SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS ACROSS THE REGION AND AROUND THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF STORMS REMAINS AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER. THE GFS HAS A FASTER PROGRESSION WHILE THE NAM IS
AMONG THE SLOWER GUIDANCE. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SPREAD. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHAT THE
BOUNDARY DECIDES TO DO. CURRENTLY THE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. PEAK ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
COINCIDE WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS, THE PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER
TODAY COULD INHIBIT STORM INITIATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH THAT SAID, PEAK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN
06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY BUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD POP-UP OR MOVE
OVER THE REGION ANYTIME DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. PLEASE MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES TODAY LOOK TO GET UP TO AROUND 105 OUT WEST
WITH UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 90-100 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
FROM THE MID 80S TO 95 RANGE WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DAILY CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
- HEAT RISK DROPPING TO MINOR BY FRIDAY AND INCREASE BACK TO
MODERATE TUESDAY.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
DAILY LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN-HALF OF TEXAS. WITH GREATER JET STREAM DYNAMICS OVER
THE ARKLATEX AND THE DEEP SOUTH, THE GREATER CHANCES WILL RESIDE
OVER SOUTHEAST/EAST TEXAS. THAT SAID, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 1.3"-1.8", SO ANY SHOWER (SEABREEZE OR OTHERWISE) WILL ONLY BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF RAINFALL. FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO
HAVE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS FRONTS THESE LAST FEW WEEKS, THIS FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLEAR SOUTH TEXAS, SO DEWPOINTS WILL STILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S, WITH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BRIEFLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. MORE IMPORTANTLY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON
THURSDAY DOWN TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AND EXPANDING FURTHER ON TUESDAY (AND POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW 100
DEGREES). MODERATE HEAT RISK ON THURSDAY WILL DROP TO MINOR HEAT
RISK FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MODERATE RISK RETURNING BY
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE PROGRESSION OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS
CURRENTLY OVER EAST MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS MAY CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
COAST AND WARRANT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN ITS
PATH. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, WITH
PROB30S INDICATIVE OF THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR DIRECT TERMINAL
IMPACTS. MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
CONVECTION WITH ACTIVITY CLEARING BY 18Z, LEADING TO PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST WITH STRONGER WINDS WITHIN STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE (BF 3-4) IS FORECAST TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE'S A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS INCREASING TO A
40-55% CHANCE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GENTLE TO MODERATE
(BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE GENTLE FLOW (BF 3) WITH 3- 4
FT SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT, A FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TURN WINDS TO BE LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLIES (BF 2-3) WITH 2-3
FT SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FROM MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY INCREASING TO MODERATE STRENGTH AND SEAS INCREASING
TO 3-4 FT. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 88 76 90 / 50 50 20 20
VICTORIA 72 87 73 90 / 50 70 20 40
LAREDO 75 94 76 97 / 50 40 30 10
ALICE 74 92 75 94 / 50 50 20 20
ROCKPORT 77 89 79 90 / 50 60 20 30
COTULLA 74 91 75 96 / 60 60 20 20
KINGSVILLE 75 90 76 92 / 50 50 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 77 86 79 87 / 50 50 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...EMF/94
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