199
FXUS64 KCRP 281138
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF S
TX THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COASTLINE THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
ISOLATED TORNADOS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING
AREAS. AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINING AROUND 3-5 INCHES/3HR. RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
ONCE THESE STORMS EXIT S TX, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE, BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, A STALLED BOUNDARY AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HOWEVER, AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX, CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED. THUS, RAIN
CHANCES DROP TO 10-30% BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW LOW (10-20%)
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT, PWATS DECREASING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES, AND MUCH HIGHER CIN ACROSS S TX. LOW TO MEDIUM
(5-30%) RAIN CHANCES ARE PROGGED FOR THURSDAY WITH THE 30% POPS
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND THE 5% ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.
WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THURSDAY. HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RISK OF
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR TO MODERATE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
THE RIDGING ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO S TX SATURDAY
MORNING BRIEFLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO S TX. THEN
TEMPS WARM BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE OVERALL HEAT RISK WILL
BE MINOR TO MODERATE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF S TX, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION BEGINS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO A
LOW TO MEDIUM (10-30%) CHANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LOW (10-20%)
CHANCE CONTINUES TONIGHT, BUT DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS PAST 22Z
THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
(40-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN
DECREASING TO A LOW (10-20%) BY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW TO MEDIUM
(10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 76 90 77 / 70 10 10 0
VICTORIA 86 73 89 74 / 70 20 30 0
LAREDO 93 76 97 76 / 60 20 10 10
ALICE 89 75 93 75 / 70 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 87 78 89 79 / 80 20 30 0
COTULLA 91 76 96 76 / 50 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 88 76 91 76 / 70 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 85 78 87 79 / 70 10 20 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...TE/81
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