393
FXUS64 KCRP 281711
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1211 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8AM. BULK OF
CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WHERE
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS. MAINLY STRATOFORM RAIN
WILL BE ENDING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER THE COASTAL BEND
AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER 12Z DRT
SOUNDING REVEALED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THUS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY VIEWING
ONE POP UP OVER WEBB COUNTY. ZONES AND COASTALS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLEXT THE EXPIRATION OF THE WATCH.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF S
TX THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COASTLINE THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
ISOLATED TORNADOS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING
AREAS. AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINING AROUND 3-5 INCHES/3HR. RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
ONCE THESE STORMS EXIT S TX, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE, BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, A STALLED BOUNDARY AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HOWEVER, AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS S TX, CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED. THUS, RAIN
CHANCES DROP TO 10-30% BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW LOW (10-20%)
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT, PWATS DECREASING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES, AND MUCH HIGHER CIN ACROSS S TX. LOW TO MEDIUM
(5-30%) RAIN CHANCES ARE PROGGED FOR THURSDAY WITH THE 30% POPS
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND THE 5% ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.
WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THURSDAY. HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RISK OF
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR TO MODERATE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
THE RIDGING ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO S TX SATURDAY
MORNING BRIEFLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO S TX. THEN
TEMPS WARM BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE OVERALL HEAT RISK WILL
BE MINOR TO MODERATE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
RAIN HAS ENDED AND CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY BREAKING UP IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING MCS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WHICH COULD AFFECT
TERMINALS FROM COT TO BEA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGHT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. MVFR
CEILINGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MID THURSDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
(40-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN
DECREASING TO A LOW (10-20%) BY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW TO MEDIUM
(10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 90 77 90 / 10 10 0 10
VICTORIA 73 89 74 89 / 20 30 0 20
LAREDO 76 97 76 95 / 20 10 10 20
ALICE 75 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 20
ROCKPORT 78 89 79 90 / 20 30 0 20
COTULLA 76 96 76 94 / 20 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 76 91 76 92 / 10 10 0 20
NAVY CORPUS 78 87 79 87 / 10 20 0 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...JM/75
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