639
FXUS64 KCRP 290723
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
A DRIER AIRMASS AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW
TODAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, THUS CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE WARMER
TODAY WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, LEADING
TO WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX TONIGHT, AND MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND THE COTULLA AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST OF S
TX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE DUE TO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH PWATS
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS S TX PROVIDING A SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS, WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW (10-20%) THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS (LEVEL 2/3 OUT OF
4) RETURNS NEXT WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AMPLIFYING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DESPITE BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION PROMOTING LOW END RAIN
CHANCES (LESS THAN 20%). THE BEST CHANCES (MEDIUM 30-50%) FOR RAIN
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN MCS MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE FROM THE SIERRA MADRE.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SEEING AN AREA OF EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY MID-WEEK.
PLEASE USE CAUTION IF OUTDOORS AND REMEMBER TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. MORE HEAT SAFETY INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ALI HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF
SITES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH
THE WESTERN AREAS FILLING IN AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH MID MORNING AND RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4)
SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO PREDOMINATELY MODERATE LEVELS (BF 4)
MONDAY NIGHT. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST EVERYDAY FROM TODAY TO
MONDAY ACROSS THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 77 91 76 / 10 0 10 10
VICTORIA 92 75 91 71 / 10 10 20 10
LAREDO 98 77 97 75 / 0 10 20 50
ALICE 95 75 95 74 / 10 0 10 20
ROCKPORT 90 79 91 76 / 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 97 76 96 74 / 0 20 20 40
KINGSVILLE 92 77 92 76 / 10 0 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 88 80 88 78 / 10 0 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE/81
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...NP/92
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