851
FXUS64 KCRP 291757
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1257 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG MEANDERING FRONT ON FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.
- MODERATE/MAJOR FIRE RISK RETURNS MONDAY, INCREASING TO EXTREME
RISK ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ECONUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES INTO EASTERN TEXAS, THOUGH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF SOUTH TEXAS. THAT SAID, AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. STORMS TONIGHT
WILL FORM IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT WILL RIDE S/SSE'WARD ALONG
THE FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST CAMS ARE
LOCKING INTO GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS AN MCS-LIKE LINE OF STORMS
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. THE CHALLENGE THESE MODELS ARE HAVING IS HOW WELL
ORGANIZED THIS LINE WILL BE AS IT APPROACHES THE HWY 77 CORRIDOR.
I BLENDED IN 12Z HRRR GUIDANCE TO NBM TO INCREASE POPS IN THESE
AREAS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW, THUS POPS WERE
ONLY INCREASED GENERALLY TO 15-30%). IN THE STRONGEST STORM,
ISOLATED 1 INCH RAINFALL RATES COULD BE SUPPORTED, THOUGH THESE
RATES WILL DECREASE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. THIS
FRONT MEANDERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL INCREASE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG
THIS, BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE RIO
GRANDE/NORTHERN MEXICO ON THE TAIL END OF THE MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER
GENERALLY FROM THE BIG BEND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAFFIN BAY.
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.
FROM SUNDAY, TEXAS WILL FALL UNDER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCE,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S/LOW 100S AND
ACCORDINGLY, INCREASING THE HEAT RISK BACK INTO THE MODERATE/MAJOR
RISK IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOCATIONS IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE EXTREME RISK (LEVEL 4 OF 4) FROM
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE RELIEF WILL BE EXPECTED, UNLESS A SEABREEZE
SHOWER OR OUTFLOW COMES THROUGH, WHICH HAS LOW CHANCES (<20%) OF
OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AT AREA
TERMINALS, BEFORE MVFR LEVELS DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
IN REGARDS TO IMPACTED SITES. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND NEAR 2 FT SEAS, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS
ON SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO MODERATE (BF 4) STRENGTH SUNDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FRESH (BF 5) WINDS
FROM TUESDAY. SEAS CONCURRENTLY INCREASE TO 3-4 FT MONDAY, AND
THEN TO NEAR 5 FT SEAS FROM WEDNESDAY. DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS (10-20% CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 76 89 / 0 20 20 20
VICTORIA 74 91 72 90 / 10 40 10 20
LAREDO 76 98 76 89 / 10 20 60 40
ALICE 75 95 74 92 / 10 20 20 30
ROCKPORT 79 91 77 89 / 0 20 10 30
COTULLA 76 97 76 93 / 20 30 50 30
KINGSVILLE 76 92 76 89 / 0 20 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 79 87 79 86 / 0 20 20 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...ANM/88
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