803
FXUS64 KCRP 241133
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF A
FEW PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES, INCREASED MOISTURE, AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS DAILY ACTIVITY.
CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST (20-60%) TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO CLOSE TO 2.0" ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS, THESE WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK IS SHAPING TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER (POPS
10-30%) WITH PWATS LIKELY FALLING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND (20-40%)
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ASIDE
FROM THAT, EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE, WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
FOG DEVELOPED MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING,
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY TO PORTIONS OF THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WHILE ALI DEALS WITH LIFR VSBY, VCT IS ALSO
IMPACTED BY IFR VSBY. EXPECT FOG AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CLEAR
BY 15Z, LEADING TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE CONFINED OVER
THE WATERS AND OVER THE COASTAL BEND, WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT
FARTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS HAS THE
GREATEST CHANCES WITH MORE MOISTURE, THEREFORE HAVE PROB30 FROM
15-21Z. I DO HAVE VCSH OVER CORPUS FOR THE BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS
HAPPENING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE OTHER WEATHER MENTION OUTSIDE OF FOG FARTHER WEST. A
REPEAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WITH LIFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPING OVER ALI/VCT GENERALLY AFTER 08Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SEASONAL GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN DECREASING TO A 10-40%
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 76 91 77 / 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 91 73 90 74 / 50 20 60 10
LAREDO 98 74 99 75 / 10 10 0 0
ALICE 93 73 94 73 / 20 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 89 79 89 80 / 30 20 40 10
COTULLA 98 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 92 74 92 75 / 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 88 79 88 80 / 20 10 30 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...EMF/94
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