332
FXUS64 KCRP 251738
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND
SUNDAY/MONDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND LOWER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (~20%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
A HUMID AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TOMORROW. MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE, FAVORING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN HIT-OR-MISS, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OF MEASURABLE RAIN
OCCURRING ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT. WHILE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION, LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING 0.75 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND LOWER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (~20%) AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A PLUME
OF SAHARAN DUST, LEADING TO HAZY SKIES AND A MORE LIMITED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ONLY FORECAST NEAR
THE COAST AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPTICK IN MOISTURE (PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES) IS EXPECTED BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN,
REINTRODUCING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
DESPITE THE DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE
100-105 DEGF RANGE WHERE RAIN IS ABSENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY
MILD AND MUGGY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 DEGF ALONG
THE COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THROUGH 00Z, HOWEVER DID
DECIDE TO GO AHEAD AND MENTION VCTS CHANCES FOR CRP AND ALI
THROUGH THEN AS WELL AS PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSE TO THE 30% MARK.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST AGAIN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL POSE ANOTHER THREAT FOR FOG AND
THEREFORE LIFR VSBYS FOR ALI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO UNDER
30% BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 91 76 92 / 10 20 0 20
VICTORIA 73 91 73 92 / 10 50 0 20
LAREDO 75 99 75 98 / 10 10 0 0
ALICE 73 93 73 93 / 0 20 0 10
ROCKPORT 80 89 79 90 / 20 30 10 20
COTULLA 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 0 10
KINGSVILLE 74 91 74 92 / 0 20 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 79 89 / 20 30 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...KRS/98
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