369
FXUS64 KCRP 281756
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PWAT LEVELS
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY BE JUST THE APPETIZER
TO SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A GOOD PLUME OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE COAST. THE MINOR CONCERN I
HAVE IS IF SOMETHING WERE TO GET ORGANIZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO ASSUME ONLY WEAK ORGANIZATION IF ANYTHING, AND FOR IT TO NOT ROB
TOO MUCH OF OUR MOISTURE. WITH THAT, EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PICTURE TOMORROW BEGINNING BY DAY-BREAK ALONG THE COAST AND THEN
SPREADING INLAND. DON'T REALLY HAVE A GOOD SURFACE FEATURE TO KEEP
THINGS ORGANIZED, BUT THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES, THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND COULD BRING A
QUARTER INCH IN SOME DOWNPOURS. OVERALL, THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PWAT VALUES AT TIMES APPROACHING
2.25". AGAIN, OTHER THAN THE SEABREEZE, THERE'S NOT MUCH TO DRIVE
ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL, SO NOT LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST COULD TOP AN INCH
THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY WE'LL SEE AN UPTICK IN
TEMPS, BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR SUMMER IN SOUTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS S TX THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING TO THOSE TERMINALS THAT SEE A QUICK SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVE OVERHEAD, BRIEFLY LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND REDUCED CEILINGS. SAHARAN DUST WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS S TX
THROUGH SUNDAY, LEADING TO HAZY CONDITIONS, BUT VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN 6SM OR HIGHER. SUNDAY MORNING, MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK GENERALLY BETWEEN 50K AND 100K FT. I HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR CEILINGS DROPPING TO NEAR 2.5K FT, BUT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK REMAINING.
ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KALI FOR PATCHY FOG, REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO AS LOW AS 3 SM BETWEEN 09-12Z. RAIN FOR SUNDAY REMAINS
OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF PERIOD BUT MAY SEE SOME PROB30'S FOR THE NEXT
TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%)
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 90 77 91 / 10 50 20 50
VICTORIA 75 89 75 90 / 10 60 10 50
LAREDO 76 97 75 94 / 0 20 10 40
ALICE 74 92 73 91 / 0 50 20 50
ROCKPORT 80 89 80 89 / 20 60 30 50
COTULLA 77 98 77 96 / 0 20 10 40
KINGSVILLE 75 90 74 89 / 10 50 20 60
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 80 88 / 20 60 30 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...AE/82
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