922
FXUS64 KCRP 191114
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
- MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR RISK WITH MAX
HEAT INDICES AROUND 110.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR WEBB
COUNTY.
- LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST. A BROAD MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER
FLORIDA, WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE A FEW
WEAK SHORT WAVES TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS LESS THAN 2 INCHES. THUS, LITTLE TO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST WITH THE CENTER EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TX COAST BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HOT AND HUMID
SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE RIDGE EXITS THE AREA BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY,
LEADING TO HAZY CONDITIONS. THE DUST MAY ALSO LEAD TO MAX
TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER. GENERALLY THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX HEAT
INDICES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 110 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AT TIMES, BUT
MOST AREAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100-109. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT
INDICES WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS
MOST OF S TX OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED
IMPACTS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 25-30% EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THIS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THE RISK OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY EACH
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SATELLITE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATING SOME FOG BETWEEN VCT AND
ALI TO HBV THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR VIS FOR ALI AND POTENTIALLY FOR VCT AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CIGS IN THE TEMPO AS WELL, THOUGH
SATELLITE LOOKS MORE SCATTERED AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. LLJ
INCREASES WEST TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS INTO THE NIGHT
FOR LRD AND COT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS TO
FRESH (BF 5) LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY
EACH AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 78 93 77 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 96 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 103 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 98 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 90 81 90 81 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 102 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 95 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 89 80 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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