999
FXUS64 KCRP 191813
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
113 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
- GENERALLY MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES 105-110.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEBB COUNTY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH THIS
AFTERNOON'S SEABREEZE AND AREAS OF 700-500MB PVA IS ALLOWING FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO TO STREAM ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE COULD
SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW (SUNDAY) BEFORE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN LESS LIFT, A SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. LATE NEXT WEEK, WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT MAY
DEVELOP INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OR AT LEAST A MID-LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
MID-LEVEL LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH MAX HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM
105-110. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, GREATER SAHARAN DUST CONCENTRATION
WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, RESULTING IN REDUCED
AIR QUALITY. BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 25-30% WHILE
WINDS ARE AROUND 20 MPH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO MAY STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE REMAINS A RISK OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS OVER VCT/ALI BETWEEN 10-14Z. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, THEN RETURN LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS TO
FRESH (BF 5) LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM PORT ARANSAS
SOUTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40%
RETURN FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 93 77 93 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 77 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 79 102 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 77 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 82 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 79 101 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 77 94 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...EMF/94
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