829
FXUS64 KCRP 201136
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
- MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR RISK WITH MAX
HEAT INDICES AROUND 110.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR WEBB
COUNTY.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FORECAST CONTINUES. A BROAD MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PUSH AN INVERTED TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS, OUT OF THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STILL LOOKS TO REACH
THE TX COAST BY TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A ROGUE SHOWER OR
TWO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE RIDGE EXITS
THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
AS FOR THE SAHARAN DUST, IT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS. THE DUST MAY ALSO
LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER ALONG WITH
LOWER AIR QUALITY. GENERALLY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX HEAT INDICES MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 110 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AT TIMES, BUT MOST AREAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100-109. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES WILL
LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF S TX
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL
HAVE A MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 25-30% EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THIS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THE RISK OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY EACH
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
AS EXPECTED, MOST SITES HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ALI AT MVFR. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION AT VCT
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BREEZY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A REPEAT OF TYPICAL DIURNAL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS TO
FRESH (BF 5) LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORT
ARANSAS SOUTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY EACH AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 77 93 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 94 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 103 77 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 90 81 91 81 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 101 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 94 76 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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