380
FXUS64 KCRP 201751
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH A MAJOR RISK DEVELOPING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR WEBB
COUNTY.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
TAKE OVER AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE AND TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY) WILL DEPEND ON THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL SETUP OVER THE
GULF PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST. A MID-
LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE MOISTURE AND ACT AS A
LIFTING MECHANISM, WHILE THE SURFACE STRUGGLES TO REFLECT A LOW
OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL FEATURES.
NONETHELESS, PWAT VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND OR GREATER THAN THE 75TH
PERCENTILE AND WILL WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK, INCREASING TO A MAJOR RISK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO WEBB
COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN WINDS AROUND 20 MPH COEXIST WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30%.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
OVER ALI/VCT FROM 10-13Z. WINDS INCREASE BY MID-MORNING WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) WEDNESDAY, PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 94 78 93 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 78 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 76 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 81 91 81 90 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 78 104 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 76 96 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...EMF/94
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