689
FXUS64 KCRP 202336
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH A MAJOR RISK DEVELOPING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR WEBB
COUNTY.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
TAKE OVER AND LEAD TO RAIN-FREE AND TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY) WILL DEPEND ON THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL SETUP OVER THE
GULF PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST. A MID-
LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE MOISTURE AND ACT AS A
LIFTING MECHANISM, WHILE THE SURFACE STRUGGLES TO REFLECT A LOW
OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL FEATURES.
NONETHELESS, PWAT VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND OR GREATER THAN THE 75TH
PERCENTILE AND WILL WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK, INCREASING TO A MAJOR RISK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO WEBB
COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN WINDS AROUND 20 MPH COEXIST WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30%.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
CIGS ACROSS S TX ARE AT VFR LEVELS. THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT TONIGHT, BUT ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BKN AT VFR LEVELS MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND VCT BETWEEN 10-13Z
MONDAY MORNING. S-SE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KT WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT, THEN RESTRENGTHEN ON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) WEDNESDAY, PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 94 78 93 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 78 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 76 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 81 91 81 90 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 78 104 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 76 96 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...TE/81
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