386
FXUS64 KCRP 210543
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
- MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR RISK WITH MAX
HEAT INDICES AROUND 110.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR WEBB
COUNTY.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
NORTH, HAVE BEEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS S TX AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THIS CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME THINNER, BUT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON MONDAY. WITH THINNER, MORE TRANSPARENT
CLOUDS, MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY'S
VALUES. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAX HEAT INDICES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 110 ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AT TIMES, BUT MOST AREAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100-109. THE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY MODERATE RISK OF HEAT
RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF S TX THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR RISK OF HEAT
RELATED IMPACTS AT TIMES.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, A BROAD MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND APPROACH THE TX
COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE A SURGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE TX COAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH HELP FROM THE TROUGH, SEA BREEZE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. AT
THIS TIME, THE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (10-30%) DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND TRACK/TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 25-30% EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. THIS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THE RISK OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY EACH
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
ANOTHER SIMILAR NIGHT WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED EAST BUT
ANY CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR VCT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BUT WILL LARGELY BE MVFR. AS USUAL, ALI COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS TOWARD MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SITES
TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WEST WILL SUBSIDE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHEN MIXING STOPS. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
A GENERALLY MODERATE (BF 4) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS TO
FRESH (BF 5) LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM
PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BY MID WEEK. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 78 93 77 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 96 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 104 78 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 98 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 91 81 90 81 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 103 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 95 76 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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