055
FXUS64 KCRP 212311
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
611 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
- GENERALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEBB COUNTY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE RETURNS RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND LEAD TO
RAIN-FREE (BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE) AND HOT SUMMER CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF TOWARDS THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST.THIS SETUP WILL ENHANCE
MOISTURE AND ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM, WHILE THE SURFACE STRUGGLES
TO REFLECT ANY SORT OF LOW. NONETHELESS, PWAT VALUES HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER AND MAY EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WARRANTING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY, INCREASING TO MAJOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH
COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MAX HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 105-110 DAILY. IN ADDITION, BRIEF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF WEBB
COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN WINDS AROUND 20 MPH COEXISTS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30%.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE BETWEEN 10-14Z TUESDAY MORNING WHEN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND VCT. S-SE WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25KT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THEN RESTRENGTHEN TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
A GENERALLY MODERATE (BF 4) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS TO
FRESH (BF 5) LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM
PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BY MID WEEK. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 93 76 94 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 77 96 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 78 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 75 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 81 91 81 91 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 78 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 76 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 80 90 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...TE/81
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