410
FXUS64 KCRP 221126
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
- GENERALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR RISK WITH
MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 AT TIMES.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR WEBB
COUNTY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
- MARGINAL (AT LEAST 5%) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A BROAD MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE TX COAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE TX
COAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX. MAX HEAT INDICES
MAY BRIEFLY REACH 110 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AT TIMES, BUT MOST
AREAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100-109 THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED
IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF S TX, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY MAY HAVE A MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS AT TIMES.
ELEVATED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BRIEFLY
DROPPING TO 25-30% EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE THE RISK OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE TX COAST. SOME MODELS INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO
2.0-2.3 INCHES. THE DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH, SEA
BREEZE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. IF PWATS DO INCREASE TO
2.0+ INCHES, THEN HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT ARANSAS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE HOUSTON AREA ON FRIDAY.
AT THIS TIME, THE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (10-30%) DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, HOW STRONG A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE, AND TRACK/TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF THIS MORNING AT ALI, BUT STARTING
TO SEE A MINOR VIS REDUCTION. ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR AT ALI OR VCT, THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR THE SAME
SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A GENERALLY MODERATE (BF 4) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS TO
FRESH (BF 5) LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY. OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM PORT ARANSAS
SOUTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BY MID WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 77 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 96 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 104 77 105 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 98 75 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 91 81 91 80 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 103 76 103 76 / 0 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 95 75 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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