456
FXUS64 KCRP 222321
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
- GENERALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR RISK WITH
MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 AT TIMES.
- LOW TO MEDIUM(30-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST/VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR WEBB
COUNTY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE TEXAS AS A RESULT OF SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW FROM THE GULF. WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MOSTLY MODERATE RISK
OF HEAT RISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, WITH AREAS IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY
BRIEFLY REACHING A MAJOR RISK. HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SOME SITES MAY BRIEFLY
SEE HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 110F MARK.
MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE OF THE EASTERN COAST
OF FLORIDA WHILE SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF, REACHING
TEXAS WATERS BY FRIDAY. THIS INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRING
ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS (2.0-2.3 INCHES PWAT FORECAST WOULD
GENERALLY BE 3 SD ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN). GENERALLY
MODELS ARE HONING IN RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THIS WEEKEND (FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY) OF NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND
1-3 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTLINE ACCORDING WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE BULLSEYE OF HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE. GIVEN THAT
THIS INVERTED TROUGH COMES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
ANY STRONGER STORM MAY YIELD IN DECENT RAINFALL. AN INTERESTING
TREND OBSERVED WITH THE ENSEMBLE MODELS IS THAT THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF 6HR QPF IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IS PUSHING 1 INCH
VALUES, WITH THE ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE HIGHER END, NOW
SHOWING 2 INCH FOR THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ALL THIS TO SAY, THE
STRONGER THE STORM, THE HIGHER THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SURPASSING ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND IN THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. FURTHER INLAND, MID-LEVELS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
DRIER THAN EASTERN ZONES. GENERALLY FROM ALICE WESTWARD, POPS DROP
TO BELOW 20% THIS WEEKEND.
AS OF THIS FORECAST, THE WPC CONTINUES TO PLACE AN AREA OF
MARGINAL RISK (15% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COASTLINE, EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY.
BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR WEBB
COUNTY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE,
WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND NEAR 3 FT SEAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY.
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 FT. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%) ALONG
THE TEXAS COASTLINE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 75 97 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 77 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 74 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 81 92 80 91 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 77 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 75 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 80 90 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...LS/77
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