173
FXUS64 KCRP 231804
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- NHC HAS A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
COASTAL TEXAS FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
- GENERALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR RISK WITH
MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK, BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WHILE STILL HUMID, THE PWAT
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.3-1.5 (AROUND THE 50 PERCENTILE) WHICH WILL
KEEP THE HEAT RISK DOWN TO A MAINLY MODERATE RISK, BRIEFLY REACHING
MAJOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THURSDAY MORNING,
PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR COMMUTERS THROUGHOUT THE
COASTAL BEND.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW A 10% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
STATISTICALLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES (2.1-2.5"), WITH THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE TRENDING MORE MOIST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TEXAS
WATERS COMPARED TO THE GFS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS INCREASING IN
CONFIDENCE FOR COASTAL TEXAS, BUT LESS SO FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE RIO GRANDE. STRONGER STORMS AND BANDS THAT FORM WOULD RESULT
IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES (2"/HR+) AS SEEN PER 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES
OF QPF FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES. WE'LL HAVE MORE INFORMATION WITH
RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY AFTER THE SCHEDULED
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT AND HOW THAT MAY CHANGE IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. WPC STILL MAINTAINS AN AREA OF MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY, BUT AN EXTENSION INTO SATURDAY IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS THE DISTURBANCE REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT, WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
THE UPCOMING WEEK IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN HOT AND HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THESE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SSE'LY AT 10-15 KT
GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. TONIGHT, WINDS SUBSIDE TO 5-10 KTS. THURSDAY
MORNING, REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY AFFECTING KALI/KVCT. AFTER MID-MORNING,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
A GENTLE (BF 3) SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH NEAR 3 FT SEAS. THE INLAND BAYS CAN EXPECT UP TO A
MODERATE BREEZE (BF 4) WITH SLIGHTLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%) RESULTING IN BRIEF GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH
3-4 FT SEAS. BY THE UPCOMING WEEK, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 96 75 92 / 0 0 0 30
VICTORIA 75 100 75 94 / 0 0 0 40
LAREDO 76 105 77 102 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 74 101 73 95 / 0 0 0 30
ROCKPORT 80 92 79 90 / 0 0 10 30
COTULLA 76 105 77 100 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 74 97 73 92 / 0 0 0 30
NAVY CORPUS 79 90 79 88 / 0 0 10 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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