056
FXUS64 KCRP 242303
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
603 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
- NHC HAS A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
COASTAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY.
- GENERALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR
RISK WITH MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK
RETURNING.
THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IN OUR UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN IS AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE GULF. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS. AS IT APPROACHES, TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT VALUES (2.2-2.4") FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING INLAND. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2+ INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS THE COASTAL BEND IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE STANDARD
SUMMER-TIME EXCEPTIONS OF ALI AND VCT WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW CLOUD DECK/PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 IN THE VCT AND CRP
TAFS AS RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL MOISTURE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
A GENTLE (BF 3) SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 3 FT SEAS FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, WITH A
MODERATE BREEZE (BF 4) AND SLIGHTLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAYS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%) RESULTING IN BRIEF GUSTY
CONDITIONS WITH 3-4 FT SEAS. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
MID-WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 92 76 91 / 10 30 40 40
VICTORIA 75 93 75 91 / 10 40 50 50
LAREDO 76 102 78 98 / 0 10 10 30
ALICE 73 96 75 94 / 0 20 30 40
ROCKPORT 79 89 79 90 / 20 40 50 40
COTULLA 77 102 79 97 / 0 10 20 30
KINGSVILLE 74 93 75 92 / 0 30 30 40
NAVY CORPUS 79 88 80 89 / 10 40 50 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLM/93
AVIATION...LS/77
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