190
FXUS64 KCRP 251138
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
- NHC HAS MAINTAINED A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR A
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
- WPC HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- GENERALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR
RISK WITH MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
NHC HAS MAINTAINED A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HIGH RAINFALL
RATES ARE THE GREATEST THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ASHORE
TONIGHT. WPC HAS EXPENDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FURTHER SOUTH, INCLUDING THE EASTERN PORTION OF KLEBERG COUNTY AND
AS FAR WEST AS LIVE OAK COUNTY. THEY HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE MARGINAL
RISK IN TIME FROM TODAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. RAINFALL RATES OF 2+
INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREAS INCLUDED BY THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES 2.3-
2.5") WILL PUSH FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH HIGHER VORTICITY VALUES FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. BASED ON THIS, HAVE INCREASED POPS TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-
50%) CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
SOME PATCHY TO DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING LEADING TO
MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS OVER A COUPLE OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS (VCT AND ALI). THIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY.
EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
PREDOMINATELY OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. WESTERN
SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A MORE MODERATE BREEZE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODERATE (50-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT TO A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
(BF 2-4) FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 76 92 78 / 20 50 40 10
VICTORIA 92 75 91 76 / 70 50 50 10
LAREDO 103 78 99 77 / 20 40 20 10
ALICE 96 75 95 76 / 30 50 40 10
ROCKPORT 89 78 90 82 / 50 60 40 10
COTULLA 101 78 98 78 / 20 20 30 10
KINGSVILLE 93 75 93 77 / 30 40 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 88 78 89 82 / 40 60 40 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...NP/92
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page