412
FXUS64 KCRP 282307
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION,
LEAVING US WITH LOW CHANCES (GENERALLY <20%) ALONG THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST SATURDAY, WITH A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
TO MOVE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THESE, WHEN COMBINED WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT, WILL
RESULT IN A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES REMAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOUTH TEXAS HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING 12Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES (15-20%) MAY
PERSIST TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK AS THE STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE THE THE HEAT,
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. EXPECT A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY EXTREME HEAT RISK THROUGH THE HOLIDAY,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-112 ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, IT IS
IMPORTANT TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BY STAYING HYDRATED, TAKING
FREQUENT BREAKS, AND LIMITING TIME IN DIRECT SUN. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON HEAT SAFETY IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF CYCLE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG POTENTIAL AT
ALI, BUT SINCE WE HAVE CONSISTENTLY SEEN IFR/LIFR VSBYS EACH
MORNING, THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED AS A TEMPO FOR ALI. VCT WILL
INCLUDE MVFR VSBY FOR THE SIMILAR TIME PERIOD OF 11-15Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING
UP TO 20 KNOTS, WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BECOME GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (GENERALLY LESS THAN
20%) WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 76 98 75 97 / 0 10 0 30
LAREDO 79 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 75 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 80 92 80 93 / 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 78 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 91 81 90 / 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...KRS/98
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page