857
FXUS64 KCRP 291128
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AGAIN TODAY (UNDER 10%) AS SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. THE
MAIN CONCERN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE HEAT, WITH
THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, AND
HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 105-112 DEG F. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY, WHERE A MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS FORECAST AND LOCALIZED EXTREME (LEVEL
4 OF 4) RISK IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN
COUNTIES. A MORE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL BEND. WITH MANY FOLKS LIKELY
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND, HEAT SAFETY REMAINS
CRUCIAL. REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE, AND
LIMIT PROLONGED EXPOSURE. MORE SAFETY GUIDANCE CAN BE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/HEAT .
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD, OPENING THE DOOR FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
TO TRACK SOUTH ALONG ITS EASTERN SIDE. COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE
(PWATS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE) AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING
ACROSS TEXAS, THIS WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. LOW RAIN CHANCES (~20%) COME INTO
PLAY FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO
MORE LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES (20-60%) SUNDAY AND MONDAY REGION-
WIDE. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT STORMS WITH
ELEVATED RAIN RATES. THEREFORE, WPC HAS CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING
AREAS. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES DIMINISH SLIGHTLY (20-40%) TUESDAY
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
VIS REDUCTIONS HAVE NOT HAPPENED AT ALI OR VCT SO FAR THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL LEAVE THE MENTION IN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT EITHER LOCATION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING
MODERATE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (LESS THAN 10%)
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TO
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN DIMINISH
ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 98 75 97 75 / 10 0 30 20
LAREDO 105 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 93 80 93 79 / 0 0 10 10
COTULLA 104 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 98 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 82 91 82 / 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...PH/83
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