527
FXUS64 KCRP 291722
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HEAT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST
CONCERN FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 110 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE THIS
WEEKEND: TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND
SPEND TIME IN THE AIR CONDITIONING AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE.
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE WEST. A FEW
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER TEXAS AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PWAT 2 INCHES OR MORE) WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-60%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES LEADING TO A LOCALIZED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING--MAINLY IN
LOW-LYING AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MID-WEEK AS THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH BRINGING DRIER AIR
WITH IT.
JUST A QUICK NOTE ON THE FORECAST RAIN: HAVE CONTINUED OUR
FORECAST AS IT HAS BEEN, THOUGH I DID LOWER POPS JUST A HAIR AS I
HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE COULD REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS, THOUGH IT
IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE PRE-
DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH
(BF 5) BREEZES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-60%) SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS, SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 95 77 94 / 0 0 0 30
VICTORIA 75 97 75 94 / 0 30 20 50
LAREDO 78 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 75 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 30
ROCKPORT 80 93 79 92 / 0 10 10 30
COTULLA 78 103 77 101 / 0 0 0 20
KINGSVILLE 74 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 20
NAVY CORPUS 82 91 82 91 / 0 0 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...LS/77
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