152
FXUS64 KCRP 301116
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL AGAIN TODAY (GENERALLY <15%, WITH A
20% CHANCE UP IN THE CROSSROADS) AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE COASTAL BEND TO THE LOW 100S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTWARD. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 105-112 DEGF RANGE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY, WHERE A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
HEAT RISK IS FORECAST, AND AN ISOLATED EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) RISK
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN PARTS OF LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE, A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK WILL EXTEND INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL BEND. WITH MANY RESIDENTS LIKELY
OUTDOORS FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY WILL BE
CRITICAL. PLEASE REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS,
AND AVOID PROLONGED DIRECT SUN EXPOSURE. ADDITIONAL SAFETY TIPS
ARE AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/HEAT .
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD ALLOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO
RIDE DOWN ITS EASTERN SIDE. ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWATS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES) AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION,
THIS SETUP WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS, WITH BROADER LOW TO MODERATELY HIGH
PROBABILITIES (30-70%) EXPANDING REGION-WIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION, THERE WILL BE THIS FAR SOUTH ON SUNDAY,
SO I LOWERED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. SOME STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING, AND WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY BEFORE INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS
UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH,
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
NOTICING SOME MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS AT ALI AND VCT, BUT ONLY TO
AROUND 8 MILES AND EXPECT THEM TO MOST LIKELY STAY ABOVE 5 MILES
THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT VCT TERMINAL, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH
(BF 5) BREEZES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-60%) LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS A BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS. THE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN DRIER
AIR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 20 30
VICTORIA 98 76 95 73 / 20 20 50 40
LAREDO 105 78 104 78 / 0 0 0 20
ALICE 100 75 99 75 / 10 0 20 20
ROCKPORT 92 80 93 78 / 10 10 30 40
COTULLA 103 78 101 77 / 0 0 10 30
KINGSVILLE 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 91 82 91 81 / 0 0 20 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...PH/83
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