424
FXUS64 KCRP 302318
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
WE ARE ALL EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF THE UPCOMING RAIN, BUT WE
NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-112 IN THE AFTERNOON.
THOSE IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS WHEN
WORKING OR PLAYING OUTSIDE AS A MAJOR TO EXTREME (LEVELS 3-4 OF 4)
HEAT RISK IS ANTICIPATED. WITH MANY RESIDENTS LIKELY OUTDOORS FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY WILL BE CRITICAL.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND AVOID
PROLONGED DIRECT SUN EXPOSURE. ADDITIONAL SAFETY TIPS ARE
AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
BY SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES REACHING 2+ INCHES) AND A STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA TO BRING US SOME OF THE RAIN WE DESPERATELY NEED.
A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
AGAIN, GUIDANCE IS STILL UNCLEAR ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER POPS JUST A
BIT FOR SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY. EVEN SO, EXPECT THAT THERE
COULD BE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN EXPANDED THIS TO COVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AS THE
STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALI BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. RAIN SHOWERS
OVER VCT REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO INCLUDED A
BRIEF TEMPO FOR THIS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KNOT WINDS, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, WILL DIMINISH TO BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TOMORROW AFTERNOON PROMPTED THE INCLUSION OF
A PROB30 GROUPS FOR -SHRA FROM 12Z TO 18Z AND TSRA FROM 18Z TO 24Z
AT VCT. EXPECT LOWERED CIGS, REDUCED VSBYS, AND GUSTIER WINDS IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH
(BF 5) BREEZES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-70%) LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS A BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 95 77 92 / 0 20 20 60
VICTORIA 76 95 73 89 / 10 50 50 70
LAREDO 78 104 78 99 / 0 0 10 50
ALICE 75 99 76 94 / 0 10 20 60
ROCKPORT 80 92 78 91 / 10 20 40 60
COTULLA 78 102 77 94 / 0 10 30 60
KINGSVILLE 75 97 76 94 / 0 10 10 60
NAVY CORPUS 83 90 81 89 / 0 10 30 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...KRS/98
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