832
FXUS64 KCRP 311117
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
617 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS TODAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- WPC HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTH TX THROUGH TONIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE COASTAL BEND TO THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTWARD. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
105-112 DEGF RANGE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY, WHERE A MODERATE TO MAJOR
(LEVEL 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS FORECAST, AND AN ISOLATED EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN PARTS OF LA SALLE AND
MCMULLEN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE A MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVEL 1-2 OF 4)
WILL EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS, COASTAL BEND, AND THE
CROSSROADS. WITH MANY OF YOU LIKELY SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS THIS
LABOR DAY WEEKEND, PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY WILL BE CRITICAL. PLEASE
REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND AVOID
PROLONGED DIRECT SUN EXPOSURE. ADDITIONAL SAFETY TIPS ARE
AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/HEAT .
LATER TODAY, WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A SHIFT TO A BIT MORE OF AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE RIDGE AXIS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD, ALLOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TO RIDE DOWN ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. ALONG WITH THE
POOLING OF MOISTURE (PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES) AHEAD OF A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH, THIS SETUP WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COMING
DAYS. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (20-50%) BEGIN TODAY ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. CAMS ARE SPLIT
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY ARE HUNG UP ON THE ADVANCEMENT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS FAR SOUTH AND WEST. I INCREASED NBM
POPS OVER THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20-30%).
THE DAY-SHIFT CAN EDIT AS NECESSARY ONCE THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA COMES IN CLOSER TO TIME AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE
PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. BROADER LOW TO MODERATELY HIGH
PROBABILITIES (30-70%) WILL EXPAND REGION-WIDE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHEN THE ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP LOOKS TO BE THE BEST.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WE HAVE IN PLACE, SOME STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 12Z
TODAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THEY CONTINUE TO ALSO PAINT MOST
OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FROM 12Z MONDAY UNTIL 12Z
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH,
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF VCT TERMINAL EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED VCSH WORDING IN THE TAF FOR THIS MORNING.
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR
THIS SITE. LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION AT CRP TODAY - TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTION
APPROACHING COT THIS EVENING AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN TAF.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF IN THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW, AND HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT VCT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH
(BF 5) BREEZES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BECOME LOW TO MEDIUM (20-70%) LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AS A BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS. THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
BRING IN DRIER AIR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 95 77 91 75 / 20 30 70 50
VICTORIA 95 74 90 72 / 50 50 70 30
LAREDO 104 78 98 75 / 10 20 60 60
ALICE 99 75 93 74 / 20 20 70 50
ROCKPORT 93 77 90 77 / 30 40 70 50
COTULLA 101 77 93 75 / 20 30 70 40
KINGSVILLE 97 76 93 74 / 20 20 70 50
NAVY CORPUS 91 81 89 80 / 20 40 60 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...PH/83
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