713
FXUS64 KCRP 311734
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- WPC HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTH TX THROUGH TONIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
AS EXPECTED, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND ALONG THE COAST.
OUR MOST RECENT SOUNDING (08/31 AT 00Z) SHOWED PWAT VALUES AT
1.73 AND CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 2.0-2.2" IN THESE
AREAS, WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL
PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE
MOISTURE WILL REACH, BUT MESOSCALE MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS COTULLA LATE TONIGHT THEN CONTINUING
FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY. THEREFORE, WE STILL HAVE
20-50% CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS AND WEST OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY, WITH
A 40-70% CHANCE OVER AND EAST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WPC HAS INCLUDED THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEY
THEN HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS--ESPECIALLY IN
STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE AREA RETURNS, ONCE AGAIN,
TO THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE "COOLER" WITH PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO HIGHS "ONLY" IN THE
90S. BY WEDNESDAY, THOSE WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE MID-90S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 100S OUT WEST. SOUTH TEXAS SUMMER IS NOT
REALLY OVER, SO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY. REMEMBER THAT
HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER VCT AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, OFF AND ON, THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT SPREADS TO THE SOUTH.
PRIMARILY, VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST THEN
TO THE NORTHEAST/NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) NORTHEAST AND
NORTH WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 75 92 / 30 70 50 40
VICTORIA 74 90 72 94 / 50 70 30 20
LAREDO 78 98 75 94 / 20 60 60 40
ALICE 75 93 74 95 / 20 70 50 40
ROCKPORT 77 90 77 92 / 40 70 50 30
COTULLA 77 93 75 96 / 30 70 40 20
KINGSVILLE 76 93 74 92 / 20 70 50 40
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 80 89 / 40 60 60 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...LS/77
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