953
FXUS64 KCRP 312335
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- WPC HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTH TX THROUGH TONIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
AS EXPECTED, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND ALONG THE COAST.
OUR MOST RECENT SOUNDING (08/31 AT 00Z) SHOWED PWAT VALUES AT
1.73 AND CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 2.0-2.2" IN THESE
AREAS, WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL
PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE
MOISTURE WILL REACH, BUT MESOSCALE MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS COTULLA LATE TONIGHT THEN CONTINUING
FURTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY. THEREFORE, WE STILL HAVE
20-50% CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS AND WEST OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY, WITH
A 40-70% CHANCE OVER AND EAST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WPC HAS INCLUDED THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEY
THEN HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS--ESPECIALLY IN
STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AND THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE AREA RETURNS, ONCE AGAIN,
TO THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE "COOLER" WITH PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO HIGHS "ONLY" IN THE
90S. BY WEDNESDAY, THOSE WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE MID-90S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 100S OUT WEST. SOUTH TEXAS SUMMER IS NOT
REALLY OVER, SO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY. REMEMBER THAT
HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
AT TIME OF WRITING, CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER VCT
HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO BE BE STABILIZING IN THE WAKE
OF THE OUTFLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CLOSER WE GET TO TOMORROW
MORNING, COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT PROB30 GROUPS FOR -SHRA AND
-TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR ALL SITES, WITH EASTERN SITES BEGINNING JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE EXPANDING WESTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERALL,
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT EAST THEN TO THE NORTHEAST/NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) NORTHEAST AND
NORTH WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 76 93 / 40 50 40 40
VICTORIA 75 90 73 96 / 40 60 20 20
LAREDO 78 97 76 96 / 10 40 50 40
ALICE 76 93 75 96 / 30 50 40 40
ROCKPORT 78 90 77 92 / 50 60 40 30
COTULLA 77 93 75 96 / 30 50 40 20
KINGSVILLE 76 93 75 93 / 30 50 40 40
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 80 90 / 40 50 50 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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