455
FXUS64 KCRP 011119
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
619 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
- WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH TX
THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
CARDS TODAY, AIDED BY FORECAST PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES, THE STALLING
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND PERIODIC MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PASSING OVERHEAD AND PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD
EXTEND FARTHER WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY TODAY BASED ON CURRENT
CAM GUIDANCE. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS ALSO UNFORTUNATELY STILL SPLIT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS FAR SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, CRP SOUNDING PWATS HAVE BEEN MEASURING SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE MODEL PWATS. NBM POPS ARE STILL COMING IN TOO HIGH
FOR MY LIKING GIVEN ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, SO LOWERED THEM A BIT
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS (40-60%) AND LOWER FARTHER INLAND (20-40%).
GIVEN THE FORECAST MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WHILE TODAY'S RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES AS INDICATED BY ENSEMBLE 50TH PERCENTILE
24-HOUR QPF GUIDANCE, LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD, A RETURN TO HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-90S
NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR 100 INLAND BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HEAT SAFETY WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY TRY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING WITH IT ADDITIONAL LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-40%) FOR
RAIN. HOWEVER, THIS IS ALMOST A WEEK FROM NOW, AND MORE TIME WILL
BE NEEDED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS IN ORDER TO REFINE
THIS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE NOTED IN A BROKEN LINE FROM
AROUND RAS TO PEZ THIS MORNING, AFFECTING AREAS BETWEEN CRP/ALI
AND VCT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OR CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING ENDS. SOME AREAS OF REDUCES CIGS THIS MORNING, MAINLY AT
VCT TO IFR. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE BY MID-MORNING WITH PREDOMINANT
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 76 93 75 / 50 40 30 0
VICTORIA 91 72 95 72 / 40 20 20 0
LAREDO 98 77 98 75 / 40 50 30 10
ALICE 94 75 96 72 / 40 40 30 0
ROCKPORT 90 77 93 77 / 50 40 30 10
COTULLA 93 75 98 74 / 50 30 20 0
KINGSVILLE 94 75 94 72 / 50 40 40 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 80 90 80 / 60 40 40 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...PH/83
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