033
FXUS64 KCRP 030528
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1228 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
- UNSEASONABLY HOT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
- INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS AS MUCH AS 4-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER, RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE
NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE EVENTUAL
REMNANTS OF LORENA MAKING IT'S WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS WRAPPING AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THE EXACT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL AND LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ARE STILL A LITTLE
CLOUDY, CONFIDENCE ON THE PRESENCE OF SOME KIND OF RAINFALL IS
INCREASING. SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFS ARE SHOWING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN
2.5-2.8" WHILE OTHER LIKE THE ECMWF ARE SHOWING PWAT VALUES ONLY
BETWEEN 2.2-2.5" COINCIDING THE WITH THE POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL REMNANTS OF LORENA. IF WE
GET HIGHER PWAT VALUES CLOSER TO WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING, WE CAN
EXPECT EFFICIENT RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. IF WE
GET A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF, WE COULD STILL SEE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE IMPACTS SHOULDN'T BE AS DIRE AS IF THE
HIGHER PWAT SCENARIO WAS TO PLAY OUT. ALL IS ALL, IT'S STILL TO
EARLY TO KNOW ALL THE DETAILS AS FAR AS LOCATION AND EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE VERY LOW FOR TUESDAY - NEAR ZERO FOR MOST
TERMINALS. A ROGUE SEA BREEZE SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TO THE 50-70% RANGE WITH THE WETTEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. HEAVY RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 98 72 101 74 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 102 77 106 77 / 10 0 0 0
ALICE 100 73 101 73 / 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 95 78 93 80 / 10 10 0 0
COTULLA 101 74 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 98 74 99 73 / 10 0 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 92 80 92 81 / 10 10 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...JCP/84
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