072
FXUS64 KCRP 111729
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
- NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE, WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS N TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
IT MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY, A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST
AROUND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHER POPS (30-50%) WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND TO SOUTHERN WEBB COUNTY
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED. THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS IS THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE RAIN WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT, BUT A LOW (5-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
EACH DAY. THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS TX WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES (20-50%) EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS VCT BETWEEN 08-
13Z FRIDAY MORNING, DUE TO PATCHY FOG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND TO LRD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS. MORE AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS CRP, ALI AND LRD. E-SE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND
20KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES WEST, THEN WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5)ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS EACH
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY, BECOMING LOW (10-30%) OVER
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 92 76 92 / 20 30 10 10
VICTORIA 70 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 75 97 75 98 / 10 40 10 20
ALICE 73 95 71 95 / 10 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 79 92 79 92 / 20 20 10 10
COTULLA 75 97 72 97 / 0 20 0 10
KINGSVILLE 74 93 73 93 / 10 40 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 81 89 / 30 30 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...TE/81
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