026
FXUS64 KCRP 121104
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
604 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
- NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY AND
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PARKED OVER TEXAS. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WILL FILTER
IN OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY ALLOWING FOR A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-
55%). POPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY, AND THEY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION IN THE LATEST RUNS. AFTER TODAY THOUGH, RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AND DONT RETURN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STEADY DIET OF MORE SHORTWAVES TO PROGRESS INTO THE
REGION. POPS COME UP TO ABOUT 20% BEGINNING MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO AROUND 30-45% OVER LAND BY TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN AT A FEW SITES THIS MORNING DUE
TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS SEVERAL SITES. BY MID-
MORNING, ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALI AND CRP THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE WIND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON. LOW TO MEDIUM (30-65%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY, BECOMING LOW (10-30%)
OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 76 92 76 / 40 0 10 0
VICTORIA 95 70 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 97 75 98 74 / 30 10 20 0
ALICE 94 72 95 72 / 50 0 10 0
ROCKPORT 91 79 91 78 / 30 0 10 10
COTULLA 96 72 97 72 / 30 0 10 0
KINGSVILLE 91 73 93 73 / 50 0 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 89 81 / 50 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...JCP/84
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