922
FXUS64 KCRP 131746
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- INCREASING RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE AT NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CURRENTLY, SOUTH TEXAS IS SITTING UNDER AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WITH A GREATER THAN 1.5" PWAT MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CONTINUE LULL OF ACTIVITY OVER THE REST
OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) DAILY RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK DUE TO MOISTURE RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL INTERACTING WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MECHANISMS (SURFACE HEATING AND SEABREEZE). WE'RE
CONTINUING TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO APPROACHING SEASONAL HIGH TIDE AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH P-ETSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL
WATER LEVELS AT ARANSAS PASS PEAKING BETWEEN 1.7-2.1 FT MSL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A VERY LOW
(<20%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT LRD/COT
AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEABREEZE BEFORE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. LEANING WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MVFR VSBY OVER VCT
FROM 09-13Z AND MVFR CEILINGS OVER LRD/COT FROM 12-16Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY MODERATE BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND
GENTLE BREEZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5
FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 92 76 92 / 0 10 10 30
VICTORIA 70 95 69 95 / 0 10 0 10
LAREDO 75 98 74 98 / 0 10 0 20
ALICE 72 95 71 95 / 0 10 10 30
ROCKPORT 79 91 78 91 / 0 20 20 20
COTULLA 74 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 73 93 72 92 / 0 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 80 89 / 10 20 30 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...EMF/94
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