141
FXUS64 KCRP 141750
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- INCREASING RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE AT NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK
- DAILY LOW (20-30%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK PEAKING TO 40-45% WED/THU
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THERE'S A MOISTURE AXIS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY RESULTING IN A
LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE, MOST OF SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGHING JUST LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER LOWS DROPPING DOWN
FROM CANADA THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR TROUGHING
AND SOME LIMITED PVA TO MOVE IN OVER THE REGION AND STRETCHING
DOWN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW (~20-30%)
DAILY RAIN CHANCES STARTING MONDAY, PEAKING TO AROUND 40-45% MID-
WEEK.
HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY.
LOWS OVER THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES.
P-ETSS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING UPWARD SLIGHTLY FOR SEAS THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES. INDICATING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
AROUND 1:50 AM. DESPITE GUIDANCE FORECASTING SEA LEVELS AROUND 1.8
FEET MSL, LAST NIGHT NO FLOODING WAS OBSERVED SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH MVFR
VSBYS AT VCT/ALI TOMORROW MORNING FOR FOG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE'S A VERY LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR MVFR CEILINGS
AT ALI/VCT OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 10 30
VICTORIA 70 93 67 94 / 0 20 0 10
LAREDO 74 98 72 96 / 0 10 0 10
ALICE 72 94 70 94 / 0 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 78 91 77 91 / 10 20 10 30
COTULLA 73 95 71 95 / 0 10 0 10
KINGSVILLE 73 93 72 93 / 0 20 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 80 88 80 89 / 20 30 20 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80
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