604
FXUS64 KCRP 041745
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. REMEMBER, "WAVE, YELL, SWIM PARALLEL!"
- DAILY LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH NEXT
WORK WEEK. "WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS."
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF/LOUISIANA COAST WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SENDING OCCASIONAL PVA ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION,
SUBSIDENCE FROM A MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, BECOMING THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE
ON OUR REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
PRESENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE
PRESENT, AIDED BY THE RETURN OF MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE AND COASTAL IMPACTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DASY. A COMBINATION OF FULL MOON ASTRONOMICAL TIDES,
INCREASING SWELL PERIODS, AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
SUSTAIN AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND
(HIGH TONIGHT, MODERATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT). MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE, WITH
WATER LEVELS APPROACHING THE DUNES. BEACHGOERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
USE CAUTION AS THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID-70S NEAR THE COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH PERIODS OF EASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR
SOME COASTAL SHOWERS FOR OUR EASTERNMOST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR
PROB30 AT THIS TIME. THERE'S ALSO A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG AT VCT AND ALI TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN
10-15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE (BF 4-5) WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS UPTICK IN WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS, WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FEET
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CREATING SCEC AND SCA
CONDITIONS. THE SCA FOR THE OPEN WATERS GENERALLY NORTH OF PORT
ARANSAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 1AM SUNDAY. THE EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT, ELEVATED SEAS, AND LONG SWELL PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. WITH A FULL MOON ON OCTOBER 6TH,
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES
HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL, WITH WATER
LEVELS ALREADY REACHING THE DUNES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO A GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) SUNDAY MORNING AND SHIFT BACK TO AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW (20-30%) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TUESDAY INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 30%. ALTHOUGH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
RANGES FROM 50TH-90TH PERCENTILE, WEAK SURFACE AND 20 FT WINDS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE FIRE RISK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DAILY LOW (20-40%)
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 89 74 90 / 20 20 10 20
VICTORIA 68 91 69 91 / 10 40 10 30
LAREDO 71 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 69 93 70 95 / 10 20 0 20
ROCKPORT 75 88 75 90 / 30 30 20 20
COTULLA 70 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 71 90 71 93 / 10 20 0 20
NAVY CORPUS 78 87 78 87 / 30 20 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ255-275.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...KRS/98
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