312
FXUS64 KCRP 051748
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING. AN EXTENSION IS LIKELY.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE
TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. REMEMBER, "WAVE, YELL, SWIM PARALLEL!"
- DAILY LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH NEXT WORK
WEEK. "WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS."
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%)
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. INTO MIDWEEK, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, LEADING TO WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED. LATE IN
THE WEEK, WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND POCKETS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST,
BUT NO WIDESPREAD OR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID-90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE MID-70S ALONG THE COAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE AFTERNOONS FEEL WARMER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE MENTIONED, WE ARE GOING TO
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE AS MARINE AND COASTAL HAZARDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A COMBINATION OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED
WITH TOMORROW'S FULL MOON, LONG-PERIOD SWELLS OF 7-9 SECONDS, AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS
ELEVATED. THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY BRING WATER TO THE DUNES,
PARTICULARLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, PROLONGING THE NEED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. BEACHGOERS ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION, AS STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAN OCCUR EVEN
UNDER SEEMINGLY CALM CONDITIONS, AND LOW-LYING BEACH ROADS MAY
BECOME INUNDATED NEAR HIGH TIDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH PERIODS OF EASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR
SOME COASTAL SHOWERS FOR OUR EASTERNMOST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR
PROB30 AT THIS TIME, EXCEPT FOR AT CRP WHICH WILL GO THROUGH 20Z.
THERE'S ALSO A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG
AT VCT, CRP, AND ALI TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 09-14Z, SO TEMPOS
WERE INCLUDED TO MENTION THIS HAZARD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE (BF 3-4) THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY WILL SHIFT TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. A
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE (BF 4-5) REDEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW (20-40%) SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO LOW TO MODERATE (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ABOVE 30% THROUGH THIS WEEK. SUSTAINED SURFACE AND 20 FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK AT LESS THAN 20 MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DAILY LOW
(20-40%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. OVERALL, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 91 74 91 / 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 69 91 69 93 / 10 30 10 20
LAREDO 72 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 70 94 70 94 / 0 10 0 20
ROCKPORT 75 89 75 90 / 20 20 10 20
COTULLA 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 71 92 72 91 / 0 10 0 30
NAVY CORPUS 77 87 79 88 / 20 10 10 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...KRS/98
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